Jeff Ward: What are the Odds Patchland Will Come to Its Senses?

No! I did not buy a lottery ticket, thank you very much!

In fact, I haven’t purchased a heinous slip of paper in more than 20 years. I know y’all love to label me as a liberal, but this fiscal conservative refuses to fall prey to what’s nothing more than a voluntary tax.

Because when it comes to winning the ping pong ball sweepstakes, you have a better chance of dying in an asteroid strike, being struck by lightning, dying of a snake bite, being attacked by flesh easting bacteria, or watching your golf foursome hit two holes-in-one on the same hole.

But despite those incredible odds, apparently everyone in this bloody country but interim Patch editor Dan Campana and myself shelled out $1.5 billion for the privilege of participating a one in 176 million Mega Millions record jackpot long shot.

Even if you cracked open your prized pink piggy bank to buy as many as 100 tickets, it would not have significantly increased your chances of striking it rich.

It was exactly this form of group psychosis that Mr. Campana and I found ourselves discussing at length last week. Why is it that seemingly rational people are so utterly undaunted by these absurdly long odds that they will line up at a convenience store checkout counter like lemmings marching to the sea?

Then it struck us! And no—it wasn’t an asteroid! It was a statement once proffered by that famous American author and philosopher Will Durant, “The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds.”

Bingo! (Pun intended!) Not only does that declaration perfectly describe this lottery fever, but it explains so many other mass conundrums that have so recently baffled me.

For example, until now, I’ve never been able to understand what could possibly motivate us to consistently vote against our own best interest.

Despite the reasonable success of the Medicare program and the absurd cost of private health insurance, if you dare whisper the phrase “national health care” it will send the average American into a complete tizzy.

But, hallelujah! Now I get it! These folks have somehow convinced themselves that their family will be the ones who buck the odds and avoid serious illness or injury. Of course, these kinds of things only happen to “other people,” and who the heck wants to have to pay for them?

And just as it is with the lottery, the inverse mindset works also! The reason so many people scream about taxing the rich is because the more canny politicians tap into the fantasy that, someday, we’ll all be welcomed into the 1 percent club.

But there are two problems with that thinking. First, these starry-eyed dreamers believe it can happen without any effort, i.e. buying a lottery ticket, and second, if everyone could join the club, it would no longer be the “one percent,” would it?

Before you accuse me of being partisan once again, please allow me to clearly stipulate this malady is equally bi-partisan.

During the course of the 2008 presidential race, my vastly Republican friends often chided me with the reality that, not only would Barack Obama fail to live up to his promise, he would be unable to keep all his promises as well.

But my response to their persistent heckling was, “You’re right! No man on Earth could live up to the ideal this man is aspiring to in just four short years.” So even though I’m disappointed with Mr. Obama, I’m not nearly as distraught as the plethora of liberals who bought into a boatload of wishful thinking.

You certainly wouldn’t know it from hanging around the good old US of A, but being realistic does have its benefits.

But let’s get back to the lottery.

In keeping with the practical theme of this column, I will do my best to refrain from wistfully hoping for some significant sign of American altruism. But even that cynicism can’t keep you from wondering what could’ve been accomplished with the $1.5 billion you all just spent on a pipe dream.

Homelessness could be cut in half. Childhood diabetes research would make a quantum leap. Food pantries would be bursting at the seams. And we could create the kind of safety net that would prevent our most vulnerable children from falling through the cracks.

I know! I know! Since that scenario is my own version of the malaise I’ve just describied, let’s try this tack instead.

The average American spends $150 a year on the lottery. Instead of throwing it out that virtual window, let’s pretend you invested that money in a simple S&P mutual fund from 2001 to 2011. Despite enduring the 2008 market crash, not only would you still be staring at your $1,500 principal, but a neat little $535 profit, as well!

Along those same lines, had your grandparents put that $150 in the stock market back in 1929, that singular investment would now be worth more than $200,000.

Now you can see why there will be no lottery tickets in my future.

So having finally figured out what’s behind this rampant lottery and masochistic political fever, the kicker is, like a snake swallowing its tail, it’s exactly this unique brand of American “wishful thinking” that destroys the political process and actually prevents us from getting what we really want!