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Jeff Ward: The Anatomy of a 40-Point Defeat

Though it's difficult to lose an election by a 70-30 vote, here's how you do it.

 

The late great Detroit Tigers manager Sparky Anderson said something that’s always stuck with me. He said a baseball team wins one-third of their games and loses one-third – it’s what they do with the rest that makes a winner.

Replace the word “baseball” with “elections,” and “games” with “votes,” and it still works because it’s those on-the-fence third of voters who always decide an election.

So on the rare occasion a high profile candidate doesn’t manage pick up that minimum in a hotly contested incumbent-less primary battle, it begs the question as to how Anderson’s axiom broke down.

To that end, in ascending order of importance, here are the 10 factors that played a role in the Kane County Republican Chairman race turning into a 70-30 landslide in favor of Chris Lauzen:

10. The bus. It actually was a mammoth RV, but “The Bus,” as it was called, roamed Kane County with oversized images of Mayor Kevin Burns’ gleaming visage on both sides.

While collar county chair contests may have risen to the level of a Congressional campaign and a Palin-esque bus might work for a presidential contender, the bus fell completely flat out here.

Calling it absurd and ostentatious, the blogs literally lit up with a virtually unanimous disdain for the vehicle. But instead of retiring it, the Burns campaign kept it rolling for the duration.

9. The emails. The unflattering content of Burns' infamous FOIAed campaign emails certainly didn’t help him, but the election was already over by the time they were made public. This revelation was simply the final nail in a rapidly closing coffin.

8. Bush league campaign tactics. Attempting to crash a Chris Lauzen press conference en masse, sending folks to hold up your signs at another Lauzen event and claiming your opponent was the subject of an FBI investigation while providing no proof of that allegation completely turned off the voters.

I know almost anything goes in politics these days, but that doesn’t mean you can summarily ignore the potential equal and opposite reaction to any campaign maneuver.

7. Choices have consequences. It’s true that political relationships tend to operate on a sophomore level, but that doesn’t absolve you from choosing your friends wisely. You never want to give the electorate a knee-jerk reason to vote for your opponent.

Bet instead of paying attention to that principle, Burns aligned himself with a group of polarizing Kane County ultra-insiders who’s power and influence were rapidly waning.

6. Disconnect actions have consequences. When I watched the Mayor cast the vote that kept a small Geneva property tax increase alive, I sat there in utter disbelief. You can’t call yourself a “fiscal conservative” in one breath and vote to raise taxes in the next.

What made this move particularly suspect was Burns knew he didn’t have the votes to prevail, but couldn’t let the defeat go.

5. “Who’s he campaigning to?” That’s exactly what a spectator whispered to me at the Young Republicans debate. Another attendee asked me why he was campaigning as a Democrat.

The specific Burns’ declarations that made me wince were, I might raise taxes, everything’s fine at the county, we shouldn’t dwell on the past and I might hire a county administrator.

4. Ethics investigation (or the lack of one). The mayor’s inability or outright refusal to decisively address the campaign email question or Streets Superintendent Steve Lemaire’s theft arrest absolutelty killed him.

You can’t claim it’s your leadership that sets you apart and then fail to lead.

Had the mayor issued a real apology (not his weak city council speech), fined himself $100 (via a donation to Lazarus House) and then apologized for what he said in those emails, it would've been yesterday's news.

3. The Hultgren non-endorsement. This is where Burns lost any shot at the county chair. You can’t flunk Politics 101 and win an election. Never assume you have an endorsement until you have it in writing. And if you do jump the gun, don’t make it that much worse by claiming the candidate still secretly supports you.

2. The two-term politician disease. Western Township Republican Secretary Denny Ryan and I just had this discussion. Unless you’re very careful, there’s a malady that infects eight-year office holders whereby they begin to believe that whatever they’ve been thinking for the last five minutes has to be the truth.

And once that kind of entitlement mentality takes hold, the end is near.

1. Surrounding yourself with yes men. The other question I kept repeating to myself during the campaign was “Who the hell is advising him?” If you want to win a high profile office, you have to surround yourself with the kind of campaign staffers that are willing to keep you on the straight and narrow.

Instead, blinded by their own egos and a loathing for Lauzen, folks like Illinois Republican Chairman Pat Brady and county board member Mike Donahue contributed to a badly disorganized campaign that failed on all levels.

In fact, they ignored the basics so badly that Kevin Burns didn’t even carry Geneva.

The real lesson here is, had the mayor built a team of campaign confidants who were willing to challenge his preconceived notions, pitfalls No. 2-10 could’ve been completely avoided.

My intent here is not to kick the mayor when he’s down, hopefully he’ll take his lumps and bounce back to more effectively lead the city of Geneva. My point is to tell a cautionary tale that might benefit all elected officials and anyone considering a run.

In politics, you can never afford to become your own worst enemy.

Related Topics: Chris Lauzen, Elections, Jeff Ward, Kevin Burns, and county chairman primary

Rudy

6:47 am on Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Considering the comments from the most recent city council meeting it looks much less like bouncing back and more like crash and burn! Denial is powerful enemy!

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Jeff Ward

7:12 am on Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Rudy,

Sadly, you are dead on. The column was written before that meeting.

Jeff

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John R

12:13 pm on Wednesday, March 28, 2012

The bus was a huge mistake. I sort of wanted to check it out a little closer. What year was that baby? Did it have a Cummins or Detroit diesel? Was the interior well appointed? So many questions yet few answers. As soon as I saw it I figured he was doomed. Probably a rule of thumb would be that campaign buses should be researved for Congressional races and above.

I requested a yard sign several weeks ago and never got one. Lauzen had signs all over the place. My house is on a corner lot at the main intersection into our neighborhood. A prime spot for a sign. One thing I've noticed in Kane County is the one with the biggest and most numerous signs seems to win.

It never seemed like his campaign got going. Which was weird because for all practical purposes the Republican primary for Kane county Chair was the general election. Lauzen should easily win in November. All efforts should have been made for the primary. This was the time to pull out all the stops. Minus the bus of course.

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Jeff Ward

2:19 pm on Wednesday, March 28, 2012

John,

You're mostly right about the signs. But it's about more where they are than how many of them are up.

What I noticed was the Burns signs were only on at the major sites where the party regulars put them up. Main intersections and the vacant lots on Keslinger for example.

But when I'd drive down side streets in LaFox or run through Geneva, there were Lauzen signs on people's front lawns.

That kind of thing lets you know where a candidate's support is coming from.

Jeff

Marc Avelar

12:33 pm on Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Jeff & all, please (re)read this article and comments thread from back in early December concerning the county board chairman Republican primary, particularly, my comments about Kevin Burns' campaign fundraising:

http://geneva.patch.com/articles/burns-endorsed-by-township-chairmen

Fundraising was the earliest indicator Burns' campaign wasn't taking off. From his early August candidacy announcement to late October, or 2 and 1/2 months, Burns' campaign fundraising was non-existent, while Chris Lauzen's fundraising was spectacular in the 3rd quarter, to over $77,000 in the 3rd quarter in 2011.

Given Lauzen started the 3rd quarter with just $866 and change cash-on-hand, his county board chairman campaign war chest was built effectively in the last half of 2011. By year-end, Lauzen had raised over $90,000 and had over $50,000 cash-on-hand to start the year. Burns had raised over $30,000 and had over $10,000 cash-on-hand, according to campaign disclosure reports.

While, according to you Jeff, the e-mails may have been the final nail to Burns' chairman's candidacy coffin, that coffin was effectively constructed and built by the end of 2011 due to Lauzen's huge fundraising advantage.

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Jeff Ward

2:21 pm on Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Marc,

When it comes to a county campaign, I don't think that fundraising disparity is enough. If Mayor Burns had chosen widely he could've closed the gap.

Remember, the column wasn't about him winning as much as it was bout the magnitude of the loss.

Jeff

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Henry T

3:27 pm on Wednesday, March 28, 2012

The RV was something he had when he ran for congress as well.
Also it was interesting as a hard R in Aurora I don't think I ever got a single piece of mail from Burns, a couple of robocalls (from the state party chair) but that was about it.

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Marc Avelar

4:43 pm on Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Hi Jeff,

I would say a 2011 year-end cash-on-hand advantage Chris Lauzen's campaign had of 5-1 ($50,387 to $10,356) over Keven Burns' campaign is a pretty good indicator, unless Burns had a big cash infusion, a decisive win for Lauzen was in the making.

As Henry T. pointed out, he did not receive a single piece of mail from the Burns campaign, and he said he's a "hard R" from Aurora. I too am a "hard R" in Algonquin, and I didn't see a single Burns mailer, neither. I do not receive robocalls from anyone's campaign, so can't evaluate that communication tool, though Lauzen does not use them.

With the cash-on-hand Lauzen's campaign had, I knew there would be at least 3 to 4 countywide mailings. Burns had none. Combined with Lauzen's grassroots support, and similar support from several grassroots organizations (ISRA, IFRL, A.B.A.T.E., Kane County Conservative Coalition), Lauzen's name and message got out many ways.

It will be interesting to see Burns' campaign financials for 2012 and see where his limited resources were spent. Definitely wasn't on mailings.

Back to the points from your list. Of all of the points, #5 is the one that resonates the most with me, which happened at the same time #3 hit -- the Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview. Although Burns won the endorsement, the audio of the interview was quite revealing thanks to Jim Fuller releasing it, and the YR event the next week did make me wonder why Burns wasn't running as an independent.

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Jeff Ward

5:13 pm on Wednesday, March 28, 2012

John,

For once, I'm a step ahead of you. The great thing about being an opinion columnist is you get to have an opinion. And my opinion is that Alderman Rich Marks would make a great mayor.

And I'm very persuasive!

Jeff

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Charles Emout

3:54 pm on Thursday, March 29, 2012

Based on what's been reported, Burns' limited resources went largely two places:
1.) The "bus" wrap = $7,000
2.) Bill Page & Chris Brown (campaign "consulting") = $10,000

When I looked at the D-2's & A-1's the week or two before the election, and saw that close to 46% of Burns' total money raised had been spent on two items (bus and consultants) that equate to exactly ZERO votes gained -- I knew this race was going to be a HUGE landslide! If you don't get your name/message out there, you don't win, it's as simple as that.

In fact I'll go so far as to say that the audacity of the bus combined with Bill Page's storied history in the Tri-Cities likely combined to cost Burns more votes than they gained him...

Cassandra Lakeland

11:26 am on Saturday, March 31, 2012

Mr. Burns borrowed his friend Mike Donahue's bus/motor coach when he ran for congress. Is this the same motor coach? Burn's is now a two time loser. Let's hope someone runs against him as mayor the next time around. That would make three strikes and you're out.

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